A Nagging Issue

This has bothered me for a long time and I finally did something about it at work today. Every year we seem to be floored by the newest "highest grossing movie ever." Simultaneously, the price of a movie ticket (and the price of everything else) keeps going up. This is not a coincidence.

I'm sure that others have assembled lists of the highest-grossing movies of all time that have been adjusted for inflation, but most of the ones I've seen have only adjusted for inflation based on movie ticket prices, which I don't think tells the whole story. Regardless, the rankings we always hear reported are undoubtedly in nominal dollars. To wit, from Wikipedia:


(Sorry the table is messed up, Blogger and I don't agree on formatting sometimes)

Top 50 Movies by Gross Nominal Box Office

1 Avatar $2,783,165,628 (2009)
2 Titanic $1,843,201,268 (1997)
3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,110,941 (2003)
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,066,179,725 (2006)
5 Toy Story 3 $1,063,165,731 (2010)
6 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,299,801 (2010)
7 The Dark Knight $1,001,921,825 (2008)
8 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $974,733,550 (2001)
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $963,420,425 (2007)
10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $954,501,070 (2010)
11 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $938,212,738 (2007)
12 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $933,959,197 (2009)
13 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $925,282,504 (2002)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $924,317,558 (1999)
15 Shrek 2 $919,838,758 (2004)
16 Jurassic Park $914,691,118 (1993)
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $907,423,683 (2011)
18 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
19 Spider-Man 3 $890,871,626 (2007)
20 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $886,686,817 (2009)
21 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $878,643,482 (2002)
22 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $870,761,744 (2001)
23 Finding Nemo $867,893,978 (2003)
24 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $836,297,228 (2009)
26 Inception $823,576,195 (2010)
27 Spider-Man $821,708,551 (2002)
28 Independence Day $817,400,891 (1996)
29 Shrek the Third $798,958,162 (2007)
30 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $795,634,070 (2004)
31 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $792,910,554 (1982)
32 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $786,636,033 (2008)
33 The Lion King $783,841,776 (1994)
34 Spider-Man 2 $783,766,341 (2004)
35 Star Wars $775,398,007 (1977)
36 2012 $769,304,749 (2009)
37 The Da Vinci Code $758,239,851 (2006)
38 Shrek Forever After $752,600,867 (2010)
39 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
40 The Matrix Reloaded $742,128,461 (2003)
41 Up $731,342,744 (2009)
42 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $709,711,008 (2009)
43 Transformers $709,709,780 (2007)
44 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $698,491,347 (2010)
45 Forrest Gump $677,387,716 (1994)
46 The Sixth Sense $672,806,292 (1999)
47 Ice Age: The Meltdown $655,388,158 (2006)
48 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $654,264,015 (2003)
49 Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones $649,398,328 (2002)
50 Kung Fu Panda $631,744,560 (2008)

The average year of release from this list is 2004. The median year? 2006. So, in other words, if we look at box office lists in nominal terms, without accounting for rising costs due to the natural forces of inflation, the vast majority of the most (financially) successful movies have been made in the last decade.

But instinctively, you know this is wrong. You know that some of the most successful (read: financially and otherwise) movies were made decades ago; many of which will never be surpassed in importance. You also know that costs have gone up in the last decade since the release of the first installment in the LOTR series (#22 above) and even more so since E.T. came out in 1982 (#31). So isn't it much more impressive that these movies are able to make it as high up on the list when they're climbing uphill against the forces of economics?

Yes. It is.

So I compiled a new list, adjusted for inflation (based on the Consumer Price Index) so that everything is according to 2005 USD. However, some very successful but older movies were obviously trounced so hard by recent nominal dollars that they didn't make the Top 50 above and simply rearranging that list won't give us an objective ranking.

To account for this, I turned back to my head researcher (read: Wikipedia) and looked at the highest-grossing movie for each individual year, adjusted those to $2005 as well, and merged them into the list. I realize this isn't perfect as it doesn't account for years in which two movies were very financially successful, but there's only so much of the day to burn through at work. Apologies.


Top 50 Movies by Gross Real (2005 USD) Box Office

1 Gone with the Wind $4,599,729,414 (1939)
2 Bambi $2,760,032,508 (1942)
3 Avatar $2,520,298,495 (2009)
4 Titanic $2,169,748,403 (1997)
5 Star Wars $2,067,728,019 (1977)
6 The Exorcist $1,604,478,032 (1973)
7 Jaws $1,445,938,556 (1975)
8 The Sound of Music $1,436,818,705 (1965)
9 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $1,435,132,224 (1982)
10 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,185,247,766 (2003)
11 Jurassic Park $1,165,508,560 (1993)
12 The Empire Strikes Back $1,143,775,371 (1980)
13 One Hundred and One Dalmatians $1,142,826,967 (1961)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $1,060,362,003 (1999)
15 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $1,049,017,551 (2001)
16 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,030,922,186 (2006)
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $1,000,413,563 (2002)
18 Grease $985,735,418 (1978)
19 The Jungle Book $980,674,664 (1967)
20 Independence Day $979,862,013 (1996)
21 The Lion King $978,090,562 (1994)
22 Pinocchio $968,438,701 (1940)
23 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $956,986,201 (2001)
24 Toy Story 3 $955,482,817 (2010)
25 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $949,987,547 (2002)
26 Shrek 2 $949,854,149 (2004)
27 Shrek the Third $940,504,016 (2007)
28 The Godfather $930,396,397 (1972)
29 Alice in Wonderland $920,553,429 (2010)
30 The Dark Knight $919,363,025 (2008)
31 Finding Nemo $919,184,472 (2003)
32 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $904,280,482 (2007)
33 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
34 Spider-Man $888,429,615 (2002)
35 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $880,620,178 (2007)
36 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $857,824,274 (2010)
37 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
38 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $845,747,711 (2009)
39 Forrest Gump $845,255,448 (1994)
40 Spider-Man 3 $836,185,119 (2007)
41 Return of the Jedi $823,693,095 (1983)
42 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $821,596,520 (2004)
43 Spider-Man 2 $809,341,533 (2004)
44 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $804,810,362 (2011)
45 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $802,940,158 (2009)
46 The Matrix Reloaded $785,986,508 (2003)
47 The Sixth Sense $771,832,387 (1999)
48 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $757,309,814 (2009)
49 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
50 Raiders of the Lost Ark $742,874,597 (1981)

Average release year for this list backs up a decade to 1993. Median release is 2002. Though this is still far to the modern side of the movie-making timeline, that weighting is understandable due to the relatively recent invention of the Summer Blockbuster and the latest binge on high-budget (broad-base, large-profit) comic book films, let alone new ways of raising even more revenue, namely IMAX theaters and 3-D and digital projection premiums. Again, I suspect this average year would creep back into the past even further if I were to incorporate more than just the highest-earning film from any given year (though it is also possible that the new revenue streams I just mentioned would account for this and even things out).

Things that I like about this new list:
-It certainly gives you a better idea of cinematic quality in addition to financial success. Of the Top 10 films in the inflation-adjusted list, only Bambi wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 of the Nominal Top 10 were nominated (due in part to the utter domination of the Harry Potter series). The extent to which the Academy actually determines cinematic quality will be left un-debated at this time.

-It knocked Transformers down dozens of needed pegs.

-Raiders of the Lost Ark sneaks on.

-I, at least, get a better understanding of the societal impact of some of these movies. I have never thought Gone With the Wind was as good as everyone else thought, but you can begin to tell how important a movie it was for its time. The average income in the US in 1939 was less than $20,000, a gallon of gas cost 10 cents, and GWtW pulled in almost $4.6 billion?! I find this so astounding that I doubt the numbers on Wikipedia, but to the best of my knowledge, those are box office receipts and not all-time revenue.

-The Godfather also makes it on. How its usual absence hasn't provoked another baptism scene is beyond me.

-This is also a good reminder about monetary value, generally. Too often, political discourse fails to point out the impact of inflation as it pertains to everything from the debt and deficit to public sector salaries to the price of a gallon of gas. I think this is an intuitive way to realize the impact of changing conditions when making comparisons across time.

Things that I don't like about this list:
-Transformers is still on the list.


I'm sure there are many more interesting observations that can be pulled out of here, but I don't have the time to analyze now. I might check back on it later. In the meantime, perhaps creating two lists of some of the more successful movies of all time will result in some much-needed search traffic and welcome analysis from others.