Friday, November 16, 2012

FJM Treatment for Mitch Albom

We are nowhere near worthy or capable of filling the void created by the end of FJM; it’s likely that no one ever will be.  But the fucking inanity that has been circulating in the wake of the AL MVP award announcement has demanded that something be said, and the following standard-bearer of philistinistic sports writing is clearly the best choice for a good ol’ FJM drubbing.  So, submitted for your approval, is our best attempt at eviscerating Mitch Albom, FJM-style.

Mitch Albom: Miggy's award a win for fans, defeat for stats geeks
           
The eyes have it.

Starting with a homophone. Writing. Righting.

In a battle of computer analysis versus people who still watch baseball as, you know, a sport, what we saw with our Detroit vision was what most voters saw as well:

A nightmarish hellscape of desolation? Broken dreams? Maybe Kid Rock wandering around?  

Is Mitch’s assertion here that sports are not meant to be viewed critically?  Sure don’t need to pay all these sports writers so much goddamn money to manufacture drama and storylines then, do we?  Let’s all sit quietly and take in the game as, you know, a sport and stop writing stupid elegies on how Jim Leyland’s success as a manager makes him a shining reflection of Detroit.  Because baseball is just a game, you nerdy nerdbombers.

Miguel Cabrera is the Most Valuable Player in the American League this year.

No, he just won the award. Probably going to come back to that one a lot.

"It means a lot," he told reporters over the phone from Miami. "I'm very thankful. ... I thought it was gonna be very close."

So did everyone. But the debate ended Thursday night when the results were announced, with Cabrera earning 22 of the 28 first-place votes from the Baseball Writers' Association of America. It reinforced what Tigers fans have been saying all season: This guy is a monster.

The tautology here is breathtaking.  Cabrera deserved to win the award because he won the award.  Look at all that award winning!  This guy is a monster.

It also answered the kind of frenzied cyberspace argument that never shadowed baseball 20 years ago but may never stop shadowing it now.

Not to be too much of a dick here (I’ll save that for later, believe me, it’s going to happen), but there weren’t many cyberspace arguments about, well, anything 20 years ago. Cyberspace was barely a thing.  Also, one might argue that continuing to refer to “cyberspace” as a thing further illuminates what a luddite Mitch Albom is, and that his understanding of the internet comes almost exclusively from Angelina Jolie’s dialogue in “Hackers.”

Statistics geeks insisted Cabrera was less worthy than Angels rookie centerfielder Mike Trout. Not because Trout's traditional baseball numbers were better. They weren't. Cabrera had more home runs (44), more runs batted in (139) and a better batting average (.330) than Trout and everyone else in the American League. It gave him the sport's first Triple Crown in 45 years.

Yes, Cabrera won the first Triple Crown in 45 years. He should win the 2012 MVP because in 2007 Alex Rodriguez led the AL in HR and RBI, but couldn’t pull off a higher batting average that Magglio Ordonez. Magglio Ordonez is why Miguel Cabrera deserves the MVP Award.

Telex machines were an amazing piece of technology in 1967.  Some people still own telex machines because they value a simpler, more familiar world that they can easily understand even though telex machines have been superseded many times over by better more efficient technology.  Seeing a telex machine in working order sure would be neat since it’s been such a long time since I have seen one, but most people would still prefer to use the general betterness of email rather than an outmoded telex machine.  [Also true for baseball statistics.]

But Trout excelled in the kind of numbers that weren't even considered a few years ago, mostly because A) They were impossible to measure, and B) Nobody gave a hoot.

Trout did not excel in numbers. He excelled at baseball. The numbers just reflected that.

Today, every stat matters. There is no end to the appetite for categories -- from OBP to OPS to WAR. I mean, OMG! The number of triples hit while wearing a certain-colored underwear is probably being measured as we speak.

ZOMFG ROFLMAO! The most informative thing about this paragraph is that it lets everyone know that Mitch Albom spends a little too much time thinking about baseball players’ underwear.

So in areas such as "how many Cabrera home runs would have gone out in Angel Stadium of Anaheim"

First off, this is really not that “advanced” of a stat.  Even Mitch Albom must have looked at home-road splits before.  We’ve been keeping those for a while, and the peculiarity of ballparks (Polo Grounds, Fenway, etc.) have long been the shit that makes old guard writers touch themselves.  Don’t pretend now that you don’t like that shit.  That’s being an asshole.

And furthermore, in order to determine which home runs would have gone out at Angel Stadium, nerdy stat dweebstains pretty much just look where the ball landed and compare it to the fence distance.  That is, they look for where the ball landed and compare it to the fence distance once someone beams a clip of the home run into their subterranean stat lairs.  They are not allowed to look directly at a baseball.

or "batting average when leading off an inning" or "Win Probability Added," Trout had the edge. At least this is what we were told.

I mean, did you do the math? I didn't. I like to actually see the sun once in a while.

Yes, he just said, “No, I didn’t do any research for this article I’m about to write. I like to just throw feces at my computer screen. Preferably outside.”

And again: HAHAHA GREAT POINT MITCH THOSE FUCKING DWEEBS NEVER LEAVE THEIR COMPUTER ROOMS WHAT FUCKING DORKHOLES HAHABNVBSJS@#$Wer23W

Plus he has intangibles

Besides, if you live in Detroit, you didn't need a slide rule.

Deriding slide rules is the most cliched fucking thing in the world. I have no idea how to use a slide rule. If I saw one, I probably wouldn’t even know that’s what it was. Slide rules, also not necessary to calculate OBP.  Maybe that’s why Mitch Albom hates stats so much: No matter how hard he shakes his slide rule, no advanced metrics fall out.

This was an easy choice. People here watched Cabrera, 29, tower above the game in 2012. Day after day, game after game, he was a Herculean force. Valuable? What other word was there?

You tell me, you’re the asshole who gets paid to write things.

How many late-inning heroics? How many clutch hits?

I understand that these are all rhetorical questions, but the arguments would be a lot stronger if they were actually backed up with evidence. Just saying.

And he only missed one game all year.

We’re a whole lot of words into the article, and this is only like the third legitimately good point made in favor of Cabrera’s MVP candidacy.

"During the season, a lot of guys tell me I'm gonna be the MVP," Cabrera said, laughing. "But they said the same thing to Trout."

Yes, it's true, Trout is faster, Trout is a better defensive player, Trout is a leadoff hitter, and Trout edged Cabrera in several of those made-for-Microsoft categories.

This is supposed to be an article about why Miguel Cabrera is better than Mike Trout.

But if you are going to go molten deep into intangibles, why stop at things like "which guy hit more homers into the power alleys?" (A real statistic, I am sorry to say.)

Intangible: adjective


  • unable to be touched; not having physical presence: the moonlight made things seem intangible
  • difficult or impossible to define or understand; vague and abstract: the rose symbolized something intangible about their relationship
  • (of an asset or benefit) not constituting or represented by a physical object and of a value not precisely measurable: intangible business property like patents

Everything Mitch just listed is inherently tangible.  We can argue as to whether or not our oh-so-tangible measurement of fielding is still a little flawed, but we can measure for better or worse everything Mitch just listed.  And - - tangibly - - Mike Trout was better.

Why not also consider such intangibles as locker-room presence? Teammates love playing around -- and around with -- Miggy. He helps the room.

Implication by comparison: Mike Trout is a registered sex offender.

How about his effect on pitchers? Nobody wanted the embarrassment of him slamming a pitch over the wall. The amount of effort pitchers expended on Cabrera or the guy batting ahead of him surely took its toll and affected the pitches other batters saw. Why not find a way to measure that? (Don't worry. I'm sure someone is working on it as we speak.)

Implication by comparison: Mike Trout, hitter of 30 home runs, hit almost no home runs.  Mike Trout, leadoff batter, was not a concern for pitchers at all (even though an at bat to leadoff an inning is almost twice as important as batting with 2 outs and no one on).

I guess a guy who steals almost 50 bases in a season doesn’t have any effect on pitchers.

What about the debilitating power of a three-run homer?

Miguel Cabrera hit 3 three-run homers this year, out-debilitating Mike Trout by 1 super-debilitating three-run homer.

How many opposing teams slumped after Cabrera muscled one out? How about team confidence? You heard everyone from Prince Fielder to Justin Verlander speak in awed tones about being on the same team as Cabrera. Doesn't that embolden teammates and bring out their best?

Most times, people say nice things about their teammates.  Every time, what people say about their teammates is not relevant to anyone’s baseball value.

So does this mean that Justin Verlander wasn’t trying his hardest last season, because Cabrera wasn’t the MVP that year? But Verlander was the 2011 MVP. So maybe Verlander emboldened Cabrera and brought out his best this year. So I guess Verlander should be the MVP again.

How about the value of a guy who could shift from first to third base -- as Cabrera did this past season -- to make room for Fielder? Ask manager Jim Leyland how valuable that is.

According to FanGraphs, Cabrera went from being a fairly-better-than-average first baseman at 2 earned runs fewer than average to a fairly-terrible third baseman at 4.6 earned runs more than average.  If Jim Leyland cared to look at these simple number comparisons, he would say that this was not a valuable move.  He might also tell you that Prince Fielder only being 1.3 earned runs better than average at first base (the acquisition that precipitated Cabrera’s move across the diamond) did not make Cabrera’s move any more valuable.  Then Jim Leyland would probably light four cigarettes at once, clap his hands and mutter “Let’s Go” as he walked away from you.

And regardless, you know what’s more valuable than that? Being the best fucking centerfielder in the league. And that’s the kind of thing you can see by just watching baseball games. Does anyone actually think that Albom watched games that the Tigers weren’t in?

How about the fact that Cabrera's team made the playoffs and Trout's did not? ("Yes," countered Team Trout, "but the Angels actually won more games.")

Thanks!  I am a member of Team Trout and was justing going to say that.  You are either not arguing anything, or arguing the opposite of what you want to.  

How about the fact that Cabrera played the whole season while Trout started his in the minors? ("Yes," said the Trout Shouters, "but the Angels won a greater percentage with Trout than Detroit did with Cabrera.")

Oooh, I like Trout’s Shouters better.  We’re gonna vote on the name change the next time my mom says I can have friends over.  

Trout was still better despite missing those games, and the Angels won a greater percentage of games with and without Trout than the Tigers did with Cabrera.

How about this? How about that? The fact is, voters are not instructed to give more credence to any one category than another.

But when they do, they pick the wrong categories.

Twenty-eight sportswriters, two from each AL city, decide, in their own minds, what is "valuable" and who displayed it the most.

They chose Cabrera.

By an overwhelming majority.

“I burned The Five People You Meet in Heaven, so it must have been worth burning.”

And sportswriters are so fucking smart. They give us well-written, thoughtful, insightful pieces like this one.

In the end, memories were more powerful than microchips.

Here “powerful” means “subjective.”

A rival for the future

Which, by the way, speaks to a larger issue about baseball. It is simply being saturated with situational statistics. What other sport keeps coming up with new categories to watch the same game?

Every sport.

That’s the beauty of it though: you can watch baseball and totally ignore all of that. None of it matters if you’re just trying to go sit in the sun, watch a game, and drink beers. But when you’re charged with determining who the most valuable player was, you need to go beyond what’s enjoyable, and what’s subjectively fun and interesting, and make an honest effort to determine who is most worthy of the award. And it sure seems like the majority of voters did not bother doing that.

A box score now reads like an annual report. And this WAR statistic -- which measures the number of wins a player gives his team versus a replacement player of minor league/bench talent (honestly, who comes up with this stuff?) -- is another way of declaring, "Nerds win!"

I’m starting to think Mitch Albom was sexually abused by his middle school math teacher, such is his hatred of math.  It’s OK, Mitch.  It’s not your fault.  Show me on the slide rule where he touched you.  It’s going to be OK.

Also, Mitch Albom needs to stop acting like a fourth grade bully, it’s like he’s trying to impress the little girl with pigtails and bangs by calling people “nerd.”

We need to slow down the shoveling of raw data into the "what can we come up with next?" machine. It is actually creating a divide between those who like to watch the game of baseball and those who want to reduce it to binary code.

Setting aside for a second that watching baseball in green-coded Matrix-vision would look pretty fucking cool, the assertion that looking at stats of any variety and loving baseball are mutually exclusive is the most offensive part of this whole debate.  Mitch is right about one thing, the sort of statistical analysis that he loathes is not easy and comes from hours of labor and years of data collection.  That immense effort is derived from and fucking driven by an intense love of baseball.  But what do I know?  I’m just a worthless nerd who deserves to be wedgied by the cool kids who write super butch novels about kids hanging out with their dead mothers.

Yes. I love watching baseball. I love watching players play, especially great players. I still remember the first time I ever saw Randy Johnson pitch in person, and it was mindblowing. But I also like knowing who’s really, really good at baseball. And, unfortunately, I can’t just watch baseball all of the time. So the “what can we come up with next” machine is actually pretty helpful.

To that end, Cabrera's winning was actually a bell ring for the old school. There is also an element of tradition here. The last three Triple Crown winners were also voted as MVP.

So what? That’s like saying leeches made that one guy better all those years ago, and then a few decades before that, too. But no one is going to suggest leeches to cure cancer, they’re probably going to go with Chemo and Radiation. Things NERDS came up with. Old School doesn’t mean better. It doesn’t necessarily mean worse. But here it totally does.

"I think they can use both," Cabrera said when asked about computer stats versus old-time performance. "In the end, it's gonna be the same. You gotta play baseball."

Miguel Cabrera probably doesn’t have more than an eighth grade education. He’s still smarter than Mitch Albom.

Indeed.

As luck would have it, both top vote-getters for AL MVP played a lot of baseball this year.  Mike Trout played baseball a little bit better than Miguel Cabrera, who also played very well.  Thankfully this wasn’t another MVP race like 2002 when Miguel Tejada lost out to the Baseball-Matic 2000XL, which was simulated before the season to have hit 78 home runs, drive in 246 RBIs, and score 219 runs.  Miggy never really had a chance.

This was a nice moment for the Tigers -- and a small consolation prize for owner Mike Ilitch and president Dave Dombrowski, who, like Cabrera, would have traded a World Series ring for any postseason award. But the Tigers now have back-to-back MVPs (Verlander last year), which speaks pretty well for their ability to develop and sign talent. It's also nice that Cabrera has seemingly made a turn for the better with his off-field behavior.

Reduced drunk driving arrests also not a reasonable factor in MVP consideration.

And, for what it’s worth, the Tigers neither developed nor signed Miguel Cabrera. They traded for him. Is knowing that too nerdy for Mitch Albom? (Seriously, Mitch Fucking Albom.)

And none of this diminishes the season Trout gave the Los Angeles Angels -- and baseball history. Rarely has a rookie so dominated on so many levels. It is scary to think that Trout, only 21, will get better. And if he improves even incrementally, who is going to beat him for MVP in years to come?

Who will beat him in years to come? Shitty fucking sportswriters who are more interested in preserving their luddite baseball worldview than actually doing their job to the best of their abilities. You know, the same people who beat him for MVP this year.

But for today, for this season, anyhow, Cabrera gets the nod. In a season of fits and starts, he was a reliable Tiger, a consistent source of power, and a shadow that fell on opposing pitchers even before he reached the batter's box. He was the meat in the stew that became the American League champions, and while it is possible to argue the other way, it's undeniable to argue this one.

Food Metaphor! Food Metaphor! Food Metaphor! Also, this paragraph was stupid.

"Hopefully every year it can be a battle like that," Cabrera said.

This year, what you saw is what he got.

MVP.

The eyes have it.

/Powers down what-comes-next-machine
/Turns off lights in mom’s basement
/Kills self
       
   

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Sad News

Nothing really to criticize here, just upsetting to see a great player in any sport get removed from the game before it was time.

A call to arms from Kariya as he bows out, as well, flatly decrying the state of discipline for head shots in the NHL. And rightfully so - - this is coming from a man who had 20% brain function last year do to (mostly) unnecessary and flagrant hits. 20% brain function.

Get it together, Bettman, et al.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

A Guy With Interests in Ethanol Shamelessly Defends Ethanol

It's like people aren't even trying anymore. You used to have to do a quick google search to find out which pocket your columnist was in - - now it's right there at the end of the article:

Christjansen is president of the Indiana Ethanol Producers Association.

Ok. Let's hear what Mr. Christjansen has to say about his paycheck.

Imagine if today we had a viable alternative to gasoline; an affordable, proven and domestic fuel that cleaned our air while creating American jobs.

Someone invented a more affordable hydropowered engine? Are we using, like, liquid oxygen now? Or did someone invent that fictional engine from Atlas Shrugged that generates power from the static electricity in the air? Is air the fuel? Sweet! The future is now!

Imagine next that Congress, while doing the bidding of friends in Big Oil, conspired to kill that fuel in order to maintain the status quo and our failed energy policy that guarantees big profits for oil companies.

Bastards!

This is the reality that ethanol faces. With so many rumors and untruths, it is crucial to get the facts straight.

GASP! I DID NOT SEE THAT COMING!

Ethanol is the only viable domestic alternative to gasoline,

Let me stop you right there. I know you're about to go on and talk about how much corn we have and how we can produce ethanol cheaply and all that jazz. A few points first.

1) We have plenty of other fuel options. Many of them are "viable." I know you will make the case that ethanol is the most affordable, and you will be wrong. More on that in a second.

2) Why do we have so much extra corn in the first place? Perhaps it's because we're telling and paying people to needlessly grow it. As this NYT article points out, by subsidizing the cost of corn, the aforementioned in-the-pocket-of-Big-Oil Congress has artificially inflated the demand for corn, driving supply up to the point that the US is the #1 supplier of corn TO THE ENTIRE WORLD (40% of the total production comes from the US). Which is not a bad thing considering how many starving people there are in China/India/whichever country your Mom used to admonish you for not clearing your plate. Bottom line, we're producing more corn than the market demands, buying it at artificially inflated prices, and essentially giving it away to the rest of the world.

3) We're not even giving it away to the rest of the world anymore. From the same article above, 40% of American corn must go to ethanol production, per legislation in 2005 and 2007. So how exactly is Congress protecting the status quo by killing the corn subsidy? Seems like they're doing the opposite of that.

Christjansen goes on to talk about Indiana's corn production and its role in all of this. Skip ahead, skip ahead.

Ethanol accounts for nearly 10 percent of our fuel supply in a country that uses approximately 400 million gallons of gasoline per day. With the cost of oil over $100 a barrel, ethanol costs Big Oil more than $120 million per day in lost sales. Since it is more inexpensive than gasoline, ethanol helps to bring down the price of fuel at the pump for consumers. According to one Iowa State University study, ethanol reduced wholesale gasoline prices by $1.37 per gallon in 2010 in the Midwestern region.



This is mularky. Are you honestly trying to tell me that a mere 10% of the oil supply, was enough to bring down the whole sale cost of gas by over a dollar. If the average price of gas was $2.726 at that time, you're telling me that ethanol, which accounts for 10% of the overall market, brought down prices by almost 50%?! You, and the corn-choked state that put out that study, are lying.



Also, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, the US can presently produce 7 billion gallons of ethanol a year, or a little more than 1.9 million gallons per day. So, America's corn farmers would not be nearly as impacted by this change as Christjansen posits. Unless we were importing ethanol from other countries to which we had shipped corn for ethanol production, and we're not.

The sudden halt in ethanol production, accounting for additional imports, increased transportation costs, and lack of additional oil refining capacity, could cause gasoline prices to rise by as much as 92 percent, according to the same Iowa State study -- which at today's prices could mean gas eclipsing a staggering $7 per gallon.



Again, I call shenanigans. Sure, the price of gas could rise over $7 a gallon, and it could do that for any number of catastrophic and unforseen reasons (tornados in Missouri drove prices up across the Midwest for almost all of June, for instace). But, this is, again, ridiculous. The vast majority of Americans do not use gasoline with ethanol in it.



Two final points:

Hoosier families are tired of high gas prices and pinching pennies while their monthly budgets are being controlled by the whims of shahs and dictators in the Middle East and oil companies reap billions.

Gas prices are already high. How is ethanol going to help this in the future if any ethanol fuel source must be mixed with actual gasoline?

And it must be mixed with gasoline to combat the lie that people like Christjansen will tell you:

[Ethanol] cleaned our air.

Nope, it did the opposite. Ethanol produces almost twice as much smog-inducing carbon monoxide as gasoline. So...it distorts domestic markets, pollutes our air, (potentially) ruins our farmland by driving us towards the less-sustainable one-crop landscape we're currently seeing in the Midwest, and does absolutely nothing to help bring down the price of gasoline, which is as much controlled by Mideast supply decisions as it is by domestic oil commodities speculators.

But if you ask the dude who needs ethanol to sign his paychecks, this shit is like butta.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

A BCS Conference Commissioner Weighs In

Listen, you little pea-brained shit. You wanna pay college atheltes? Fine! Just make the numbers work and I'd be glad to. Do you know how much money it would take to give each athlete from a high-profile sport a salary each month for simple things like groceries and clothes and to relieve him/her of the feeling s/he had to steal or cheat the system simply to get by? Yeah, I don't know either. I pay people to shop for me, so I have very little idea of the market value of basic foodstuffs. A dozen eggs is like $20 right? $50? Either way, we're talking about a lot of money.

And where do you think that money will come from? Huh, chump? That's right - - my wallet. You're just gonna rob my kids of their allowances and their goose down duvet inserts so that some back-up running back future millionaire at Colorado State can buy pork rinds?

It can't happen. I wish it could. There's just not enough money. I'm sorry, there isn't. I don't know where it's all gone. But we just can't make the numbers work.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Friday, June 17, 2011

Mo Diplomas, No Problems.

It is all too infrequent that an author's hypocrisy is a matter of public record, so this was an opportunity I had to seize.

"College athletes shouldn't be paid" by Douglas M. Gottlieb.

At first blush, this doesn't seem to be all that ridiculous. A man with an insider's perspective can give us some great insider knowledge about what's going on in the inner-workings of the NCAA, where record profits just seem to disappear. So this post on ESPN's Insider page might be worth reading. (If you can't tell, I despise the over-use of the term insider at ESPN).

While there is a sudden clamoring for universities to pay their players, I feel otherwise based on my time as a student athlete and even after I left campus.

Hold up there, sparky! Which campus are you talking about? I thought I remembered that you went to a few different schools.

Oklahoma State welcomed me after my issues at Notre Dame. I don't think OSU would have accepted me from junior college, if not for my athletic prowess.

OK, so that's Notre Dame, then JuCo, then OK State? Man Notre Dame is kind of a storied program, you were starting as a freshman, and your team showed some promise. Why did you leave?

Oh! Now I remember! You were accused of stealing your roommate's credit cards and charging $900 to them! And then you were expelled.

Why would you do such a thing? Was money hard to come by while you were a student athlete? Why would you play if you weren't getting any benefits?

While college players are not paid directly, they receive a tremendous amount of benefits that aid them during, and after, their time on campus.

Oh.

It starts with "comped" campus visits in high school and continues with tutoring, preferred class registration, choice housing arrangements and, of course, the ability to walk away with a degree and without an ounce of debt to your name.

Sure, that's a lot of benefits. I guess that paid for food and clothes, too? No? How about trips to the movies or drinks or Tamagachis or bandaids or a mattress pad or ANYTHING YOU NEED TO BUY WITH ANY FORM OF CURRENCY?!

Oh, you get none of that? Makes sense that somebody (anybody) might steal credit cards or sell jerseys and memorabilia to get a tradeable commodity for the purchase of other goods. In fact, that could probably be easily predicted by the entire compendium of human existence.

I am not claiming that athletes don't get a bunch of benefits, but when the March Madness alone brings in $613 million in revenue, you could give a kid some gas money (for the car that a booster bought him, of course).

While we're on the topic, what other sorts of benefits do college athletes get?

When you play big-time basketball or football, people want to hire you. You are a known commodity and, like the colleges, businesses too would like to profit from your presence -- and compensate you in kind.

Sure. If you can read and write. Say, you know where gobs of college athletes come from? Areas of destitution where roughly 50% of students graduate from high school and those who do graduate will, on average, perform at an 8th grade level.

But let's say you come from the inner city, you get into college on the back of astounding athletic ability and you stick it out for four years. Gottlieb is right that you'll have a degree that you more than likely wouldn't have attained otherwise (assuming of course that your ticket to college didn't itself pull you out of all those valuable classes and the degree you're now holding wasn't actually just a token of time served but an actual, meaningful symbol of your earned academic prowess over your time at the university).

But then he keeps going...

We so massively undervalue a college degree -- which can lead to increased earning potential in the professional world -- and overestimate the value of a couple of hundred dollars per month while in college, which may end up getting taxed anyway.

First, college degrees are dropping in value, because, compared to 50 years ago, a much much higher percentage of Americans are graduating from college. Many think that we may be at the peak of a higher education bubble.

And again, the same fatal flaw as before: Your degree, regardless of its value, is a deferred benefit. That doesn't get you shit in the here and now. And, though there are plenty of loans available, that means you're not leaving debt free as Gottlieb and others so often claim.

But it all comes to a head for me with this point:

The payoff is in the end, after school, much like the future doctors, scientists and businessmen and women with whom you attend school. College is about sacrificing, learning and growing as a person. The reward for all students is the memories and experiences gained in the short term and benefiting from them in the long run.

Yeah, college seems like a real sacrifice for most students. What with the partying and the indiscriminate sex and the long hours of sleeping and the nothing-that-resembles-the-working-world. I would HATE to do college for the rest of my life. Talk about a drag!

And in what fucking way is the (imagined) illiterate-but-monstrous back-up defensive tackle from rural Mississippi on a Big XII football team the same as an aspiring brain surgeon from Westchester, NY?! Are you out of your goddamned mind, Gottlieb?!

Sure, there will be a payoff if you're one of the elite athletes in college athletics. But if you're not - - or worse, if you were an elite athlete who rode that into college and you get injured - - you better unlace your cleats and grab hold of your ankles, because when the NCAA is done milking you for every penny, the rest of your Eat Shit And Choke Life is going to make you remember where you came from.

Unless of course you take the easy way out and steal credit cards.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

A Nagging Issue

This has bothered me for a long time and I finally did something about it at work today. Every year we seem to be floored by the newest "highest grossing movie ever." Simultaneously, the price of a movie ticket (and the price of everything else) keeps going up. This is not a coincidence.

I'm sure that others have assembled lists of the highest-grossing movies of all time that have been adjusted for inflation, but most of the ones I've seen have only adjusted for inflation based on movie ticket prices, which I don't think tells the whole story. Regardless, the rankings we always hear reported are undoubtedly in nominal dollars. To wit, from Wikipedia:


(Sorry the table is messed up, Blogger and I don't agree on formatting sometimes)

Top 50 Movies by Gross Nominal Box Office

1 Avatar $2,783,165,628 (2009)
2 Titanic $1,843,201,268 (1997)
3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,110,941 (2003)
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,066,179,725 (2006)
5 Toy Story 3 $1,063,165,731 (2010)
6 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,299,801 (2010)
7 The Dark Knight $1,001,921,825 (2008)
8 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $974,733,550 (2001)
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $963,420,425 (2007)
10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $954,501,070 (2010)
11 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $938,212,738 (2007)
12 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $933,959,197 (2009)
13 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $925,282,504 (2002)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $924,317,558 (1999)
15 Shrek 2 $919,838,758 (2004)
16 Jurassic Park $914,691,118 (1993)
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $907,423,683 (2011)
18 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
19 Spider-Man 3 $890,871,626 (2007)
20 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $886,686,817 (2009)
21 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $878,643,482 (2002)
22 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $870,761,744 (2001)
23 Finding Nemo $867,893,978 (2003)
24 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $836,297,228 (2009)
26 Inception $823,576,195 (2010)
27 Spider-Man $821,708,551 (2002)
28 Independence Day $817,400,891 (1996)
29 Shrek the Third $798,958,162 (2007)
30 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $795,634,070 (2004)
31 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $792,910,554 (1982)
32 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $786,636,033 (2008)
33 The Lion King $783,841,776 (1994)
34 Spider-Man 2 $783,766,341 (2004)
35 Star Wars $775,398,007 (1977)
36 2012 $769,304,749 (2009)
37 The Da Vinci Code $758,239,851 (2006)
38 Shrek Forever After $752,600,867 (2010)
39 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
40 The Matrix Reloaded $742,128,461 (2003)
41 Up $731,342,744 (2009)
42 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $709,711,008 (2009)
43 Transformers $709,709,780 (2007)
44 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $698,491,347 (2010)
45 Forrest Gump $677,387,716 (1994)
46 The Sixth Sense $672,806,292 (1999)
47 Ice Age: The Meltdown $655,388,158 (2006)
48 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $654,264,015 (2003)
49 Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones $649,398,328 (2002)
50 Kung Fu Panda $631,744,560 (2008)

The average year of release from this list is 2004. The median year? 2006. So, in other words, if we look at box office lists in nominal terms, without accounting for rising costs due to the natural forces of inflation, the vast majority of the most (financially) successful movies have been made in the last decade.

But instinctively, you know this is wrong. You know that some of the most successful (read: financially and otherwise) movies were made decades ago; many of which will never be surpassed in importance. You also know that costs have gone up in the last decade since the release of the first installment in the LOTR series (#22 above) and even more so since E.T. came out in 1982 (#31). So isn't it much more impressive that these movies are able to make it as high up on the list when they're climbing uphill against the forces of economics?

Yes. It is.

So I compiled a new list, adjusted for inflation (based on the Consumer Price Index) so that everything is according to 2005 USD. However, some very successful but older movies were obviously trounced so hard by recent nominal dollars that they didn't make the Top 50 above and simply rearranging that list won't give us an objective ranking.

To account for this, I turned back to my head researcher (read: Wikipedia) and looked at the highest-grossing movie for each individual year, adjusted those to $2005 as well, and merged them into the list. I realize this isn't perfect as it doesn't account for years in which two movies were very financially successful, but there's only so much of the day to burn through at work. Apologies.


Top 50 Movies by Gross Real (2005 USD) Box Office

1 Gone with the Wind $4,599,729,414 (1939)
2 Bambi $2,760,032,508 (1942)
3 Avatar $2,520,298,495 (2009)
4 Titanic $2,169,748,403 (1997)
5 Star Wars $2,067,728,019 (1977)
6 The Exorcist $1,604,478,032 (1973)
7 Jaws $1,445,938,556 (1975)
8 The Sound of Music $1,436,818,705 (1965)
9 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $1,435,132,224 (1982)
10 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,185,247,766 (2003)
11 Jurassic Park $1,165,508,560 (1993)
12 The Empire Strikes Back $1,143,775,371 (1980)
13 One Hundred and One Dalmatians $1,142,826,967 (1961)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $1,060,362,003 (1999)
15 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $1,049,017,551 (2001)
16 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,030,922,186 (2006)
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $1,000,413,563 (2002)
18 Grease $985,735,418 (1978)
19 The Jungle Book $980,674,664 (1967)
20 Independence Day $979,862,013 (1996)
21 The Lion King $978,090,562 (1994)
22 Pinocchio $968,438,701 (1940)
23 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $956,986,201 (2001)
24 Toy Story 3 $955,482,817 (2010)
25 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $949,987,547 (2002)
26 Shrek 2 $949,854,149 (2004)
27 Shrek the Third $940,504,016 (2007)
28 The Godfather $930,396,397 (1972)
29 Alice in Wonderland $920,553,429 (2010)
30 The Dark Knight $919,363,025 (2008)
31 Finding Nemo $919,184,472 (2003)
32 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $904,280,482 (2007)
33 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
34 Spider-Man $888,429,615 (2002)
35 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $880,620,178 (2007)
36 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $857,824,274 (2010)
37 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
38 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $845,747,711 (2009)
39 Forrest Gump $845,255,448 (1994)
40 Spider-Man 3 $836,185,119 (2007)
41 Return of the Jedi $823,693,095 (1983)
42 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $821,596,520 (2004)
43 Spider-Man 2 $809,341,533 (2004)
44 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $804,810,362 (2011)
45 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $802,940,158 (2009)
46 The Matrix Reloaded $785,986,508 (2003)
47 The Sixth Sense $771,832,387 (1999)
48 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $757,309,814 (2009)
49 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
50 Raiders of the Lost Ark $742,874,597 (1981)

Average release year for this list backs up a decade to 1993. Median release is 2002. Though this is still far to the modern side of the movie-making timeline, that weighting is understandable due to the relatively recent invention of the Summer Blockbuster and the latest binge on high-budget (broad-base, large-profit) comic book films, let alone new ways of raising even more revenue, namely IMAX theaters and 3-D and digital projection premiums. Again, I suspect this average year would creep back into the past even further if I were to incorporate more than just the highest-earning film from any given year (though it is also possible that the new revenue streams I just mentioned would account for this and even things out).

Things that I like about this new list:
-It certainly gives you a better idea of cinematic quality in addition to financial success. Of the Top 10 films in the inflation-adjusted list, only Bambi wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 of the Nominal Top 10 were nominated (due in part to the utter domination of the Harry Potter series). The extent to which the Academy actually determines cinematic quality will be left un-debated at this time.

-It knocked Transformers down dozens of needed pegs.

-Raiders of the Lost Ark sneaks on.

-I, at least, get a better understanding of the societal impact of some of these movies. I have never thought Gone With the Wind was as good as everyone else thought, but you can begin to tell how important a movie it was for its time. The average income in the US in 1939 was less than $20,000, a gallon of gas cost 10 cents, and GWtW pulled in almost $4.6 billion?! I find this so astounding that I doubt the numbers on Wikipedia, but to the best of my knowledge, those are box office receipts and not all-time revenue.

-The Godfather also makes it on. How its usual absence hasn't provoked another baptism scene is beyond me.

-This is also a good reminder about monetary value, generally. Too often, political discourse fails to point out the impact of inflation as it pertains to everything from the debt and deficit to public sector salaries to the price of a gallon of gas. I think this is an intuitive way to realize the impact of changing conditions when making comparisons across time.

Things that I don't like about this list:
-Transformers is still on the list.


I'm sure there are many more interesting observations that can be pulled out of here, but I don't have the time to analyze now. I might check back on it later. In the meantime, perhaps creating two lists of some of the more successful movies of all time will result in some much-needed search traffic and welcome analysis from others.