Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, June 16, 2011

A Nagging Issue

This has bothered me for a long time and I finally did something about it at work today. Every year we seem to be floored by the newest "highest grossing movie ever." Simultaneously, the price of a movie ticket (and the price of everything else) keeps going up. This is not a coincidence.

I'm sure that others have assembled lists of the highest-grossing movies of all time that have been adjusted for inflation, but most of the ones I've seen have only adjusted for inflation based on movie ticket prices, which I don't think tells the whole story. Regardless, the rankings we always hear reported are undoubtedly in nominal dollars. To wit, from Wikipedia:


(Sorry the table is messed up, Blogger and I don't agree on formatting sometimes)

Top 50 Movies by Gross Nominal Box Office

1 Avatar $2,783,165,628 (2009)
2 Titanic $1,843,201,268 (1997)
3 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119,110,941 (2003)
4 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,066,179,725 (2006)
5 Toy Story 3 $1,063,165,731 (2010)
6 Alice in Wonderland $1,024,299,801 (2010)
7 The Dark Knight $1,001,921,825 (2008)
8 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $974,733,550 (2001)
9 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $963,420,425 (2007)
10 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $954,501,070 (2010)
11 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $938,212,738 (2007)
12 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $933,959,197 (2009)
13 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $925,282,504 (2002)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $924,317,558 (1999)
15 Shrek 2 $919,838,758 (2004)
16 Jurassic Park $914,691,118 (1993)
17 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $907,423,683 (2011)
18 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
19 Spider-Man 3 $890,871,626 (2007)
20 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $886,686,817 (2009)
21 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $878,643,482 (2002)
22 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $870,761,744 (2001)
23 Finding Nemo $867,893,978 (2003)
24 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
25 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $836,297,228 (2009)
26 Inception $823,576,195 (2010)
27 Spider-Man $821,708,551 (2002)
28 Independence Day $817,400,891 (1996)
29 Shrek the Third $798,958,162 (2007)
30 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $795,634,070 (2004)
31 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $792,910,554 (1982)
32 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $786,636,033 (2008)
33 The Lion King $783,841,776 (1994)
34 Spider-Man 2 $783,766,341 (2004)
35 Star Wars $775,398,007 (1977)
36 2012 $769,304,749 (2009)
37 The Da Vinci Code $758,239,851 (2006)
38 Shrek Forever After $752,600,867 (2010)
39 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
40 The Matrix Reloaded $742,128,461 (2003)
41 Up $731,342,744 (2009)
42 The Twilight Saga: New Moon $709,711,008 (2009)
43 Transformers $709,709,780 (2007)
44 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse $698,491,347 (2010)
45 Forrest Gump $677,387,716 (1994)
46 The Sixth Sense $672,806,292 (1999)
47 Ice Age: The Meltdown $655,388,158 (2006)
48 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $654,264,015 (2003)
49 Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones $649,398,328 (2002)
50 Kung Fu Panda $631,744,560 (2008)

The average year of release from this list is 2004. The median year? 2006. So, in other words, if we look at box office lists in nominal terms, without accounting for rising costs due to the natural forces of inflation, the vast majority of the most (financially) successful movies have been made in the last decade.

But instinctively, you know this is wrong. You know that some of the most successful (read: financially and otherwise) movies were made decades ago; many of which will never be surpassed in importance. You also know that costs have gone up in the last decade since the release of the first installment in the LOTR series (#22 above) and even more so since E.T. came out in 1982 (#31). So isn't it much more impressive that these movies are able to make it as high up on the list when they're climbing uphill against the forces of economics?

Yes. It is.

So I compiled a new list, adjusted for inflation (based on the Consumer Price Index) so that everything is according to 2005 USD. However, some very successful but older movies were obviously trounced so hard by recent nominal dollars that they didn't make the Top 50 above and simply rearranging that list won't give us an objective ranking.

To account for this, I turned back to my head researcher (read: Wikipedia) and looked at the highest-grossing movie for each individual year, adjusted those to $2005 as well, and merged them into the list. I realize this isn't perfect as it doesn't account for years in which two movies were very financially successful, but there's only so much of the day to burn through at work. Apologies.


Top 50 Movies by Gross Real (2005 USD) Box Office

1 Gone with the Wind $4,599,729,414 (1939)
2 Bambi $2,760,032,508 (1942)
3 Avatar $2,520,298,495 (2009)
4 Titanic $2,169,748,403 (1997)
5 Star Wars $2,067,728,019 (1977)
6 The Exorcist $1,604,478,032 (1973)
7 Jaws $1,445,938,556 (1975)
8 The Sound of Music $1,436,818,705 (1965)
9 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial $1,435,132,224 (1982)
10 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,185,247,766 (2003)
11 Jurassic Park $1,165,508,560 (1993)
12 The Empire Strikes Back $1,143,775,371 (1980)
13 One Hundred and One Dalmatians $1,142,826,967 (1961)
14 Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace $1,060,362,003 (1999)
15 Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone $1,049,017,551 (2001)
16 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $1,030,922,186 (2006)
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $1,000,413,563 (2002)
18 Grease $985,735,418 (1978)
19 The Jungle Book $980,674,664 (1967)
20 Independence Day $979,862,013 (1996)
21 The Lion King $978,090,562 (1994)
22 Pinocchio $968,438,701 (1940)
23 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $956,986,201 (2001)
24 Toy Story 3 $955,482,817 (2010)
25 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $949,987,547 (2002)
26 Shrek 2 $949,854,149 (2004)
27 Shrek the Third $940,504,016 (2007)
28 The Godfather $930,396,397 (1972)
29 Alice in Wonderland $920,553,429 (2010)
30 The Dark Knight $919,363,025 (2008)
31 Finding Nemo $919,184,472 (2003)
32 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $904,280,482 (2007)
33 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $895,921,036 (2005)
34 Spider-Man $888,429,615 (2002)
35 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $880,620,178 (2007)
36 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 $857,824,274 (2010)
37 Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768 (2005)
38 Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $845,747,711 (2009)
39 Forrest Gump $845,255,448 (1994)
40 Spider-Man 3 $836,185,119 (2007)
41 Return of the Jedi $823,693,095 (1983)
42 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban $821,596,520 (2004)
43 Spider-Man 2 $809,341,533 (2004)
44 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides $804,810,362 (2011)
45 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs $802,940,158 (2009)
46 The Matrix Reloaded $785,986,508 (2003)
47 The Sixth Sense $771,832,387 (1999)
48 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $757,309,814 (2009)
49 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $745,011,272 (2005)
50 Raiders of the Lost Ark $742,874,597 (1981)

Average release year for this list backs up a decade to 1993. Median release is 2002. Though this is still far to the modern side of the movie-making timeline, that weighting is understandable due to the relatively recent invention of the Summer Blockbuster and the latest binge on high-budget (broad-base, large-profit) comic book films, let alone new ways of raising even more revenue, namely IMAX theaters and 3-D and digital projection premiums. Again, I suspect this average year would creep back into the past even further if I were to incorporate more than just the highest-earning film from any given year (though it is also possible that the new revenue streams I just mentioned would account for this and even things out).

Things that I like about this new list:
-It certainly gives you a better idea of cinematic quality in addition to financial success. Of the Top 10 films in the inflation-adjusted list, only Bambi wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Only 4 of the Nominal Top 10 were nominated (due in part to the utter domination of the Harry Potter series). The extent to which the Academy actually determines cinematic quality will be left un-debated at this time.

-It knocked Transformers down dozens of needed pegs.

-Raiders of the Lost Ark sneaks on.

-I, at least, get a better understanding of the societal impact of some of these movies. I have never thought Gone With the Wind was as good as everyone else thought, but you can begin to tell how important a movie it was for its time. The average income in the US in 1939 was less than $20,000, a gallon of gas cost 10 cents, and GWtW pulled in almost $4.6 billion?! I find this so astounding that I doubt the numbers on Wikipedia, but to the best of my knowledge, those are box office receipts and not all-time revenue.

-The Godfather also makes it on. How its usual absence hasn't provoked another baptism scene is beyond me.

-This is also a good reminder about monetary value, generally. Too often, political discourse fails to point out the impact of inflation as it pertains to everything from the debt and deficit to public sector salaries to the price of a gallon of gas. I think this is an intuitive way to realize the impact of changing conditions when making comparisons across time.

Things that I don't like about this list:
-Transformers is still on the list.


I'm sure there are many more interesting observations that can be pulled out of here, but I don't have the time to analyze now. I might check back on it later. In the meantime, perhaps creating two lists of some of the more successful movies of all time will result in some much-needed search traffic and welcome analysis from others.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Mama Don't Let Your Baby Grow Up to Be a Country Music Fan: A Country-Work Orange

I've put this off for too long. Tonight is the night.

As a self-obsessed person, it bothers me on some level when I'm guided solely by instinct; I have too high of a regard for my intellect to believe that it can be over-ridden all nimbly bimbly all the time. And as far as I can tell, my instinct is to hate country music.

I'm sure that there are many adequate reasons to hate country music, but I can never put my finger on them. There are obviously very distinct attributes to the genre, but what troubles me is that for every trait of a country song that I complain about I can think of a song that I love that embodies the same trait. For every song with stupid lyrics, I'll show you a Weird Al song that I still like. For every predictable convention, I'll show you the 90s playlists on my iTunes. And above all, I love the Allman Brothers. I must figure out what really bothers me.

Tonight, I will do what few who hail from the Northeastern United States have ever done - - I will listen to country music for an indefinite amount of time without a break.

There are several possible outcomes here:

1) My ears may bleed. I'm prepared. My girlfriend is an audiologist and she's on speed dial.

2) I will discover nothing. Very likely. I might just quit. Time will tell.

3) I will win a Nobel Prize. Also likely. My article will revolutionize not only how we view country music, but how we conceive of consciousness.

4) I will grow to like country music. This unfortunate side-effect may occur. But just like the anal leakage that occurs from some prescription drugs, I'm willing to undergo this fate. In the name of science, of course.

I have chosen to listen to KAFF Country. This station has been chosen for it's current popularity (it broadcasts on both FM and AM frequencies out of Flagstaff, AZ) and since it tells me the name of the artist and the title of the song.

I will begin my study as soon as I get back with a stiff drink.

Song: Sideways
Artist: Dierks Bentley
Brief Description: Upbeat, power chords, electric guitar, standard song composition with verses, chorus, and bridge. Nothing disagreeable upfront.
Chorus:
And it’s hey now here we go.
DJ don’t you play nothing slow
Keep those girls out on the floor
Gotta make them want to come back for more.
Been here since the sun went down,
Be here when it comes back around
Worked all week it’s time to play
Gonna get a little bit sideways…
Sideways.
Comparable song(s) that I sort of like: Maybe a little bit of DMB's worst stuff in there, I could definitely feel a Kid Rock or Uncle Kracker vibe. And those are not good things.
Why I hate it: This one's lyrics based: the idea that we should celebrate Southern "culture". Of course, there's a reference to blue jeans. Of course there's red necks fighting in the parking lot. And talking to the DJ in a song went out with Kool and the Gang.


Song: Something's Gotta Give
Artist: Leann Rimes
Brief Description: Obviously female vocals. Pronounced fiddle and major chords with acoustic guitar.
Comparable Song(s) that I like: Nothing. Nothing at all. I guess maybe Devil Went Down to Georgia because of the fiddle, but that dude was way better on the fiddle than this ass hat.
Why I hate it: Something's gotta give?! When the title is a cliche, it already smells like hackneyed crap. In the first verse (and repeated thereafter) our female protagonist thought she would have a minivan by the time she had "31 candles on her birthday cake." Those are rockstar ambitions alright.


Song: Smalltown USA
Artist: Justin Moore
Brief Description: This song is the enemy.
Comparable Song(s) that I like: It sounds like a shittier version of God Bless the USA. Sort of like Black Sheep was for Tommy Boy.
Chorus:
Give me a Saturday night my baby by my side
A little Hank Jr. and a six pack of lights
Old dirt road and ill be just fine
Give me a Sunday morning that full of grace
A simple life and I'll be okay
Here in small town USA
Why I hate it: This is the quintessential country song. Over-the-top lyrics and message. The twang is unbearable. I imagine this is what plays on the beat-up boombox while Rednecks are putting up their make-shift border fences.

Song: One in Every Crowd
Artist: Montgomery Gentry
Brief Description: Somewhat funny song about the asshole friend in every group out at a bar. Nothing remarkable from a musical standpoint. Acoustic guitar and splashy cymbals.
Comparable Song(s) that I like: Nothing really sounds like it, but they do make references to Lynard Skynard for whom I do have a taste. Hmm.
Why I hate it: "There's one in every crowd, and it's usually me." That's the last line of the chorus. It's an uninspired version of "I've got Friends in Low Places." It's predictable and fails at being funny for an audience of moderate intelligence.

Song: Runaway
Artist: Love and Theft
Brief Description: The band name sounds like an album title. In fact it would be a pretty good album title. It's a typical formula, complete with the staccato snare drum fill before the chorus kicks in. Meh.
Chorus:
And pack my bags and never look back
Run a parallel line with the railroad tracks, make my getaway
Ill put the pedal to the metal as the sun goes down
Leave everybody sleepin in this sleepy town tonight
And at the break of day, Ill be a runaway

Comparable Song(s) that I like: It's a poor man's 3 Doors Down, in a way. But the lyrics and vocals were much more powerful from 3 Doors Down's first album, and they're only mediocre.
Why I hate it: I'm starting to pick up on a theme: the music itself sucks. When the vocals comprise the top part of the chord for more than the end of the song, I'm out. I want no part of this. The obvious troublesome comparison for this theory is Journey: I've got a super-gay love for "Don't Stop Believing." But I know that song to be just as distasteful for some as country is for me. Otherwise, if you're playing the fiddle and not melting someone's face or I can tell what's going to happen in your song while I'm hearing it for the first time, just stop.

Oh good, the KAFF country quiz (does it say something that they play Jazz during the dead air time on their internet station?). Good time to break and analyze that last chorus, which was a doozy.

Gonna pack my bags and never look back
"Pack my bags" has to be the most over-used, thinly-veiled metaphor for leaving in all of country music. I've heard it no less than 3 times in this short listening.

Run a parallel line with the railroad tracks, make my getaway
Well this seems ill-advised. Why run next to the tracks when you can just jump on? Use your head, kid.

Ill put the pedal to the metal as the sun goes down
So now we're driving? I thought we were just running parallel to the tracks? Why were you running in the first place if you had a car? Again, this is a poor getaway. And why are you leaving as the sun goes down? What happened to cover of darkness.?Everyone's gonna know you left dude!

Song: A Real Fine Place to Start
Artist: Sarah Evans
Brief Description: If country music is like a bad night at the theater, female vocals in a country song is like being trapped in a burning theater while seeing Cats for the 5th time.
Comparable Song(s) that I like: I think I covered this one above.
Why I hate it: I feel like I heard this song the last time some ugly harpy came through my headphones. We're at the cock-rock power guitar solo. Just look at these lyrics:

Holdin' you close, chasin' that moon.
spinnin' all night,
lovin' just who you are:
sparks flyin' in the dark.
shootin' out lights, huntin' down dreams,
figurin' out what love really means:
baby givin' you my heart,
is a real fine place to start.

The first lines are bad, but not unreasonably bad. I'll let them go.

Shootin out lights, huntin' down dreams
The letter g must feel so unappreciated in the South.

And shooting out lights must be running up your electric bill. We're in a recession. Act like it.

It's a real fine place to start
Not surprisingly, I have a semantic disagreement here. Ostensibly finding true love is a real fine place to start? Ok, then where is this start taking you? If most heart-sick girls dream of "true love" as you just described it, Ms. Evans, where do you hope we go from here?

You're being unreasonable and greedy and I won't stand for it.

Billy Joel is always my go-to counter-example to demonstrate useless lyrics. This is no different. More on that below.

Song: Since I Quit Drinkin'
Artist: Toby Keith
Brief Description: I actually laughed at this one. Maybe it's because I'm an alcoholic, who knows? The guy quits drinking and soon finds his wife to be intolerable. Not necessarily inventive, but not unfunny either.
Comparable Song(s) that I like: Maybe a funny Irish Pub Song like the Chandeler's Shop.
Why I hate it: This still isn't a song I can ever see myself listening to regularly. It sounds like a song I would laugh at on vacation, maybe listen to a time or two when I got back home, but would soon forget about and would never pay to own.

Theme of hatred #2: The emphasis on the mundane. We've seen people who long to drive minivans. We've heard the description of a typical Saturday night out, and heard the love of "a little grace on Sunday mornings." And now, all the humor in this song derives from household chores. I don't need to hear about your boring-ass life, even if you're making fun of how boring it is. It's boring; don't tell me about it.

Let's take a look at Billy Joel. "Piano Man" is also a song about a Saturday night at a bar. It also features some of the most genius lyrics of all time. Instead of "there's a guy playing piano and drinking a beer," "the piano sounds like a carnival, and the microphone smells like a beer." The old man doesn't get nostalgic about when there were "31 candles on his cake," but rather "when [he] wore a younger man's clothes." And it doesn't get more poetic than "they're sharing a drink they call loneliness, but it's better than drinking alone."

You're a country singer- the ugly, abandoned step-child of the bard. At least pretend like you know what the word "poetry" means.

Song: Love Story
Artist: Taylor Swift
Brief Description: Starts with a plucking acoustic solo. This sounds like every female vocalist who's had any modicum of fame while my sisters have grown up and listened to the radio (Vanessa Carlton, JoJo, Michelle Branch, et al).
Comparable Song(s) that I like: [Blank stare]
Why I hate it: Theme of hatred #3: Predictability. Ok, the formula has proven to sell. I get it. Many find it enjoyable, if not palatable. Fine. But in this short session of shit, I have gotten to the point where I have predicted drum fills, guitar riffs, key changes, and even lyrics. I am not a musician. This is a problem.

Song: I Can Sleep When I'm Dead
Artist: John Michael Carroll
Why I hate it: YES!!!! This is it! This is the end! It's got everything that I hate and I can finally liberate myself from this hell. It starts with a kitschy low voice and the chorus is obnoxiously high. And then it alternates! And here again we see the rogue, wandering, rough neck man trope that is all too common. Look at these fuckin' lyrics:

If there's somethin' goin' on within a hundred miles from home,
Ya gonna hear my V-8 sing
Long as I can beat the train and they got a passing lane,
Baby, I ain't gonna miss a thing
Life's too fun and I'm too young and the night ain't over yet
Like I said I can sleep when I'm dead

First off - - bullshit. There's no way anything all that interesting is going on within 100 miles of home every night; there's just not that much within 100 miles of your home in most of this country (coastal regions notwithstanding). I often drive more than 4 hours at a time throughout the Midwest and I don't pass anything that even resembles the sort of urban area where something would be going on. Your just lying to me, and I don't take kindly to that.

And why are we still so obsessed with trains in country music? Is it because they're easy to rhyme with? I understand the role of the train in 19th century America for the artist, but aren't we a little past that? And if you're a songwriter, don't you think we could get a little better at rhyming? I've got a sister in 1st grade who could tell you a thing or two about rhyming with "train."


I must walk away from what I fear has drawn me in too deeply. I'll boil this down to my three points:


Country music is...
1) Musically unappealing.
High vocals; twang; predictable, major chords; no virtuosity. Why bother? Not that this is any different with mainstream pop music, but then again, I don't listen to mainstream pop music either.

2) Where mundane shit abounds. I don't need to hear about you Tuesday afternoon.

3) Predictable. Everything sounds exactly the same. As far as I can gather, there are three types of country songs: the sappy girl-singing love song; the sappy boy-singing love song, and the up-beat, always-sung-by-a-man song about traveling or drinking.

And there you have it. Everything you need to know about country music. Any questions?